This book gives hurricanes a manageable, manipulable character. Still, we also learn about our vulnerabilities to them, which occur annually during the summer months in our region of the North Atlantic. Hurricanes, as you will see and understand, are far more dangerous and more difficult to anticipate or forecast than other severe weather events, such as cold fronts, floods, or tornadoes, when looking at them on a grander scale on planet Earth. We know regions where hurricanes are more likely, but we don’t know the precise time they will occur or the overall damage or death toll. So how are we to react in the face of such formidable force or variable risk, the book asks? Here in the North Atlantic, people live in the path of these storms, especially in the Bahamas. However, it is not easy to pick up your properties and move into less vulnerable areas, but rather, it might be easier to prepare for them by evacuating to a hurricane shelter and securing your property than to move to another location with no hurricane activity. With hurricanes, there are usually enough warnings to avoid calamity. But not always: On September 1, 2019, the sudden passage of Hurricane Dorian here in the Bahamas killed more than 74 people and devastated the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama.

Hurricanes might seem more impressive on a human scale because they are manifestations of weather rather than Earth’s roiling innards. That’s an illusion. At least with hurricanes, it is possible to avoid them most of the time: Owing to a confluence of Earth’s wind movements, moist atmosphere, and warmer sea surface temperatures, 12 percent of the world’s hurricanes—an average of 14 a year—take place in the North Atlantic, which spans the Caribbean, Central and North America, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.

Today, thanks to daily newspaper and television reports, advanced computers, Doppler radar, satellite imagery, and complex weather models that forecast their impact and tracks well before the impending storm. As a result, they save many lives and properties in the short and long term. But disasters are not entirely in nature’s hands. Regarding hurricanes, the research suggests that humans bear some responsibility for poor planning. During Dorian, hurricane warnings were given well before the impending storm. The then Prime Minister, the Director of the Bahamas Department of Meteorology, and the Director of the Bahamas National Emergency Management Agency advised residents in some Abaco and Grand Bahama areas to move from vulnerable low-lying areas. If they stayed, they could die. Some people heeded the warnings, but some remained in those vulnerable locations, and many persons died or were severely injured as a result.

There was a storm that was expected, planned for — and it ultimately brought great devastation and a hefty death toll of 74 persons, and 50 were still declared missing and presumed dead. Yet it was a disaster. Partly, this was because of the Bahama’s coastline of Abaco and Grand Bahama’s long coastlines, which are close to the sea, causing a massive 28-foot storm surge and severe flooding. But it was also because in some of the most damaged areas, a usually high tide coincided with a king tide storm surge, leading to extensive flooding.

The Bahamas was one of the few areas in the region in which the Taino Indians sub-species the Lucayan Indians were not displaced by the more warlike Caribs. When, in 1492, Christopher Columbus made his first landing in the New World in The Bahamas, the people who met him were the Lucayans who, he wrote, ‘have opened their hearts to us. We have become great friends.’ Columbus is believed to have landed at Watling’s Island (Amerindian: Guanahani; Columbus’s designation: San Salvador). But within some 20 years, the Spaniards had enslaved or transported the Lucayans; some 30,000 to 40,000 were transported to Hispaniola where they died working in mines and diving for pearls. British pirates also used the islands, and in 1629 the islands were given their first constitution as part of the Carolinas (USA). The first British settlers were refugees from religious persecution under Charles I, in Cigatoo in 1648. The island was renamed Eleuthera, meaning freedom. The settlers introduced the plantation economy and African slave labour.

An early form of democratic government, with a bicameral parliament and elected lower house, developed but was abolished in 1717, when the Crown resumed government. Although the other colonial powers did not formally dispute possession, the settlers were at times harassed by the French and Spanish as well as by pirates. Fortunes fluctuated and the population soared in the late 18th century with the arrival from America of Loyalist families and their slaves after the American Revolution. In 1783–84 the population was 4,058; by 1789, it was more than 11,000, with the white settlers forming a significant minority. The abolition of slavery in 1834 caused major economic changes as the islands had been used as a centre of slave-trading.

In 1861–65 the islands enjoyed prosperity as a depot for ships running the blockade against the Confederate States during the American Civil War. Decline followed, however, compounded by a severe hurricane in 1866 called the Great Bahamas Hurricane of 1866, which ravaged these islands. Prosperity returned in the 20th century, when the islands became an entrepôt for the American bootlegging trade during Prohibition. More conventional industries also developed including, supplying sisal, salt, turtle, wrecking and salvaging, conch shells for cameo brooch-making, pineapples and sponges. The sponge industry reached a peak in 1901 during generally lean years but collapsed in 1939 as a result of fungal diseases.

The 1933 North Atlantic hurricane season is the most active North Atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (an integrated metric that accounts for frequency, intensity, and duration), with a total of 259. of any North Atlantic hurricane season on record. It also set a record for nameable tropical storms in a single season, 20, which stood until 2005, when there were 28 storms. The season ran for six months of 1933, with tropical cyclone development occurring as early as May and as late as November. A system was active for all but 13 days from June 28 to October 7. The 1933 North Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, with 20 named storms and 11 hurricanes including 6 major (Category 3+; 1-min maximum sustained winds ≥96 kt) hurricanes occurring. A total of 8 hurricanes tracked through the Caribbean in 1933—the most on record. In addition, two Category 3 hurricanes made landfall in the Bahamas all within one month of each other: the ‘Great Treasure Coast Hurricane of 1933’ in the NW, Central Bahamas and SE Bahamas followed by the Category 5 ‘Great Cuba–Brownsville Hurricane of 1933’ in the NW Bahamas. The Great Treasure Coast Hurricane caused 48 deaths and an additional persons declared missing. The other four hurricanes impacting the Bahamas reported significant damages but no loss of lives reported.

In terms of meteorological history, the Florida-Mexico Hurricane of 1933 formed on July 24, and dissipated on August 5, 1933 as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Its highest sustained winds were measured at 90 mph. The lowest barometric pressure was estimated at 975 mbar (hPa) or 28.79 inHg. In total there were 39 persons killed in this storm and damage was estimated at more than $3 million (1933 USD) or ($62.8 million in 2023 USD). The areas affected were, The Leeward Islands, Turks and Caicos Islands, The Bahamas, Florida, Texas, and Mexico.

The Florida–Mexico Hurricane of 1933 was the first of two North Atlantic hurricanes to strike the Treasure Coast region of Florida in the very active 1933 North Atlantic hurricane season. It was one of two storms that year to inflict hurricane-force winds over South Texas, causing significant damage there; the other occurred in early September. The fifth tropical cyclone of the year, then a classical Cape Verde (now officially called Cabo Verde Islands) Type Hurricane. The Cape Verde or Cabo Verde Islands officially the Republic of Cabo Verde, is an archipelago and island country in the central Atlantic Ocean, consisting of ten volcanic islands with a combined land area of about 1,557 square miles. These islands lie between 320 and 460 nautical miles west of Cap-Vert, the westernmost point of continental Africa. The Cape Verde Islands form part of the Macaronesia ecoregion, along with the Azores, the Canary Islands, Madeira, and the Savage Isles.

The Florida-Mexico Hurricane of 1933 formed east of the Lesser Antilles on July 24, rapidly strengthening as it moved west-northwest. As it passed over the islands, it attained hurricane status on July 26, producing heavy rains and killing at least six people. Over the next three days, it moved north of the Caribbean, paralleling the Turks and Caicos Islands and The Bahamas. The storm produced extensive damage and at least one drowning as it crossed The Bahamas. On July 29, the cyclone came under the influence of changing steering currents in the atmosphere, which forced the storm into Florida near Hobe Sound a day later. A minimal hurricane at landfall, it caused negligible wind damage as it crossed Florida, but generated heavy rains along its path, causing locally severe flooding. The storm turned west, weakened to below hurricane status, and later exited the state north of Charlotte Harbor on July 31.

Once over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the storm shifted its course to the west-southwest and gradually recovered its intensity. The path of the storm brought it close to the mouth of the Rio Grande in early August. Few ships encountered the small storm as it regained hurricane status on August 4, just a day before striking northern Mexico with winds of 90 mph—making it close to a modern-day Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Striking close to the border between the United States and Mexico, the storm caused extensive damage in both countries. Winds damaged buildings and crops in Tamaulipas and the southern regions of Texas, with heavy losses to citrus production in the Rio Grande Valley. While only one person died in the United States, heavy rains led to catastrophic flooding that claimed at least 31 lives in northern Mexico; the worst-hit areas were in and near the city of Monterrey. While monetary losses in Mexico were unclear, the storm did at least $3,000,000 in damages in the United States, measured in contemporary U.S. dollars.

The July storm was not the last to damage the Treasure Coast region of Florida and the islands of The Bahamas in 1933: a much stronger tropical cyclone in September, with winds of 125 mph, extensively damaged the same area that the July storm affected. This storm overshadowed memories of the earlier hurricane, and would be remembered as among the worst in The Bahamas and the Treasure Coast region of Florida as late as the 1980s. The occurrence of two hurricanes on the east coast of Florida in the same season is a relatively rare event in historical records, but not unprecedented: for instance, forensic research by weather historian David M. Ludlum suggests that two or more hurricanes in 1837 may have affected the region. Citing reports from William Reid in his popular book on hurricanes called ‘Law of Storms’ published in 1838, Ludlum noted that two hurricanes affected Central and Northeast Florida on August 1–2 and September 6, respectively, while other storms, potentially hurricanes, may have done so later in September. The September hurricane struck between St. Augustine and Jacksonville. Coincidently, the 1837 North Atlantic hurricane season was apparently very active, like 1933; as in 2004, a record four hurricanes hit the state of Florida, including the infamous Racer’s Hurricane in October.

In terms of this storm’s meteorological history, at 8am EDT on July 24, HURDAT initialized a tropical depression some 430 miles east of Saint Lucia in the Windward Islands. This was at the time that another tropical system formed over 450 miles east of Bermuda. Prior to reanalysis in 2012, official records indicated formation at 8am EDT on July 25; however, examination of observations from ships and land stations revealed a closed low a day earlier. Upon generation, the depression moved generally west-northwest, toward the eastern Caribbean, becoming a tropical storm at 8pm EDT on July 25. However, ships and weather stations did not observe gales until later that day, so the winds in HURDAT were interpolated, but based on available data, the storm strengthened steadily. At noon, the British steamship Daytonian recorded a pressure of 1,012 mbar (29.87 inHg), followed by peak winds of Force 9 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, about 45 mph, from the east. Around that time, the island of Antigua also experienced gales and a pressure of 1,002 mbar (29.59 inHg) as the storm made landfall with winds of 60 to 70 mph. A barometer on Saba measured 983 mbar (29.02 inHg), implying maximum sustained winds of 85 mph; based on this, the storm was posthumously upgraded to hurricane status at 8:00pm EDT on July 26, 12 hours earlier than once designated in HURDAT.

As the storm neared Saint Thomas, the island experienced northeast winds of 60 mph. On its west-northwest course, the storm—now equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane—missed Puerto Rico to its northeast. On July 27, the storm brushed Grand Turk and the Caicos Islands, producing winds visually estimated at 85 mph on the former island, with a peripheral pressure of 995 mbar (29.37 inHg). The hurricane gradually bent to the northwest as it followed the arc of the eastern Bahamas. After 11am EDT on July 28, the Norwegian steamship Noreg encountered southeast winds of 70 mph, yet pressures only dipped to 1,002 mbar (29.58 inHg). The storm struck Cat Island, Bahamas, around 2pm EDT with winds of 80 mph; the next day, the storm made another landfall on the Abaco Islands with the same winds. During this time, the storm turned to the west-northwest, nearing the east coast of Florida; this was likely due to a strong ridge of high pressure in the area.

Based on ship reports, the storm made its only landfall in the United States on Jupiter Island, between Port Salerno and Hobe Sound, Florida, around noon on July 30. Some hours earlier, the American steamship El Almirante encountered hurricane-force winds—the only such instance at sea in the storm—concurrent with a pressure of 998 mbar (29.46 inHg). Another ship nearby made a reading of 992 mbar (29.29 inHg) coincident with winds of 50 mph, hinting that it was taken inside the eye of the storm; calculations by researchers determined that the central pressure was 988 mbar (29.18 inHg) at the time and at landfall in Florida. While these supported winds of only tropical storm force (70 mph), the storm had a small radius of outermost closed isobar embedded in a ridge of high pressure, so winds in Florida were deemed to be 75 mph, affirming earlier reports that listed the storm as a hurricane at landfall. After landfall, the storm weakened to a tropical storm and moved slowly westward across the south-central peninsula, passing over the northern end of Lake Okeechobee early on July 31. The center of the compact tropical cyclone then passed slightly north of Punta Gorda and reached the Gulf of Mexico, between Venice and Englewood, with winds of 45 mph.

From this point, few ships were near the center of the storm with which to accurately discern its location and intensity, though data on August 1–2 confirmed a weaker cyclone than earlier. At 8pm EDT on August 1, the storm began a persistent west-southwest movement that continued for the rest of its life cycle. A few ships on August 1–3 noted modest gales of 40 mph, with the lowest pressure on weather maps being 1,004 mbar (29.65 inHg) at 8am EDT on August 3. Based on this pressure, reanalysis inferred that the storm began gradually restrengthening a day earlier, reaching 65 mph at the time of the reading. Although the storm regained hurricane status at 9pm EDT on August 4, due to the sparsity of ship data, weather forecasters at the time assumed the storm only contained gale-force winds. For a day, the storm briefly angled to the west as it neared the Mexico–United States border, reaching its final and strongest peak of 90 mph late on August 4.

Anemometers in Brownsville, Texas, verified a landfall near Playa Lauro Villar, Tamaulipas, just south of the Rio Grande, near 9pm EDT on August 5. Based on the data, scientists ascertained a radius of maximum wind of about 30 miles as the eye made landfall. Barometers in Brownsville showed pressures of 981 to 982 mbar (28.98 to 29 inHg), attesting a central pressure of 975 mbar (28.79 inHg) in the eye. Now hooking west-southwest, the storm quickly atrophied as it moved inland and vanished over easternmost Nuevo León by 2pm EDT on August 5.

In terms of preparations for the storm, the storm affected several Caribbean Islands, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and The Bahamas, preparations there, if any, were unclear. Residents across Puerto Rico boarded up windows and secured roofs in anticipation of damaging winds. Governor Robert Hayes Gore placed the Hurricane Relief Organization and Red Cross on standby. As the storm neared Florida, the United States Weather Bureau—later the National Weather Service—posted storm warnings between Miami and Titusville. These were later extended to include the west coast of the state from Punta Rassa to Tarpon Springs. At the time, forecasters were unaware that the storm was of hurricane status; this unawareness extended to the storm’s passage over the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters only issued storm warnings for part of the Texas coast, including the cities of Brownsville and Freeport.

Upon news of the storm, businesses in West Palm Beach, Florida boarded up vulnerable, expensive plate glass windows. Fearing flooding, authorities were empowered by Florida governor David Sholtz to evacuate over 4,200–5,000 residents, most of whom were black farm workers, from low-lying areas around Lake Okeechobee to elevated locations. Most of the evacuees left by train, prompted by fears of washouts on the track beds. A day before the storm, the lake level reached 17 feet, heightening officials’ concerns about flooding and spurring the evacuations. Several railway companies lent free transport to their passengers, and trains were conveniently stationed around the lake. The evacuations took place in the communities of Belle Glade, Pahokee, Canal Point, Okeechobee, and Clewiston. Relief organizations and local mayors distributed milk, biscuits, and coffee to evacuees. On the west coast of the state, some residents covered their windows, but many others did not, anticipating little damage from the weak storm. Citizens received radio updates from the Weather Bureau, which gave the position and movement of the storm. Some beachfront residents, such as in Sarasota, left their homes for safety, while boaters secured their vessels.

In Texas, the Weather Bureau notified people early enough to allow mass evacuations: most coastal residents and camping visitors evacuated the vulnerable islands as the storm neared. Between 60 and 70% of Port Isabel’s 500 residents left before the storm, with the remainder sheltering in a sturdy brick store on the highest land available.

In terms the storm’s impact, throughout the hurricane’s path from the Caribbean, to Florida, and finally into Texas and Mexico, 39 people were killed. 31 deaths occurred in Mexico, six in Saint Kitts, and one in Texas. Although figures from Mexico were unavailable, total losses from the storm in the United States reached about $3 million, inclusive of Florida and Texas, though figures for the latter state varied from $500,000 to $1.75 million, according to various sources.

In the Caribbean, the storm’s impact was not so significant and less devastating than other locations like The Bahamas and the United States. As the storm passed over the Lesser Antilles, the storm caused at least six deaths on the island of Saint Kitts—then known as Saint Christopher Island—and the Virgin Islands reported torrential rains, though no damage was reported. The barometer dipped to 1,005 mbar (29.69 inHg) as the storm bypassed the islands to the south. Crops and farm fencing on Saint Croix sustained some damage, though overall effects were limited.

Coincidentally, the storm arrived the day after Hurricane Supplication Day, a local tradition going back several hundred years during the pre-colonial and colonial periods by the local churches in St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas (where it is still observed as a national holiday in some countries) and later on during the early colonial times other islands in the Caribbean were added to this list and followed this tradition, marking the opening of hurricane season on the fourth Monday in July. On this day, the residents and church parishioners of the Caribbean would set aside a special day called “Supplication’s Day.” This was a day set aside to mark the beginning of the hurricane season and to pray to God for safety and protection against hurricanes and other tropical storms that may ravage the Caribbean during the upcoming hurricane season.

In the Bahamas, winds of 84 mph swept the Abaco Islands early on July 29, but caused only minimal damage there. Other reports indicated more severe damage elsewhere in the islands, including across the Turks and Caicos Islands, and one death from drowning. The American schooner Adams, anchored off Grand Turk, was dragged out to sea by the hurricane’s waves. Whereas, in Florida wind damage was generally minimal as the small hurricane crossed Florida, except to citrus crops and snapped vegetation in some areas.

According to a survey by local fire officials, the calm eye was observed from Hobe Sound to the edge of Stuart, during which passage “hardly a needle in pine trees along the side of the road could be seen moving.” Peak winds estimated or registered at 60 to 70 mph affected the coast between Stuart and Fort Pierce. The winds downed several telegraph poles and destroyed a structure at Stuart, but otherwise little damage resulted. Initial reports from Fort Pierce indicated that no trees were uprooted. Farther south, apart from a snapped coconut palm, the town of Palm Beach showed little damage to foliage. In Fort Pierce, heavier losses to grapefruit were accounted at about 25%, especially in exposed groves, and some trees suffered total loss of fruit. Shrubs and roofs in the city were damaged as well, but power and water services were quickly revived as the worst of the storm passed. Final losses to citrus in the Indian River region were tallied at 10–20%, with much greater tolls locally. Avocado and mango trees also sustained significant damage. A minimum pressure of 1,004 mb (29.66 inHg) occurred in Stuart, the same as in Jupiter—both were considered unusually high for a hurricane, though likely related to the storm’s small size. In fact, contemporary meteorologists concluded that the storm had only hit Florida at tropical storm strength, with top winds of 70 mph in Stuart….

This book examines large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions that likely led to such an active hurricane season. Extremely weak vertical wind shear was prevalent over both the Caribbean and the tropical North Atlantic throughout the peak months of the hurricane season, likely in part due to a weak-to-moderate La Niña event. These favorable dynamic conditions, combined with above-normal tropical North Atlantic, sea surface temperatures in the main formation areas, created a very conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The Madden–Julian Oscillation was also relatively active during the summer and fall of 1933, providing sub-seasonal conditions that were quite favorable for tropical cyclogenesis during mid- to late August and late September to early October. The current early June and August statistical models used by Colorado State University would have predicted a very active 1933 hurricane season. A better understanding of these extremely active historical North Atlantic hurricane seasons may aid in anticipation of future hyperactive seasons.

From rising temperatures and sea levels, to worsened air pollution and droughts, no place or person on the planet is left untouched by the effects of climate change. However, there are some countries that stand to be less affected than others. Be it due to their location, laws, luck, or even all three, some nations are better equipped than others to survive climate change. To paint a more nuanced picture, the Bahamas and other SIDS countries are ranked among the major most vulnerable countries of the world even though the Bahamas and these other countries pollute the planet less than the major First World countries like India, China, USA, Germany, Australia, France, Great Britain, Japan and others. They based these assessments on two metrics: vulnerability (their ability to adapt to climate change’s negative effects) and readiness (their ability to prepare for climate change’s ongoing impact).

To understand the future of hurricanes, we have to look to the past. The historic 2020 hurricane season with its record-breaking 30 tropical storms and hurricanes, and other recent very active hurricane seasons, left in their wake hundreds of deaths in the United States, tens of billions of dollars in damages, and one important question: Is this what the future will look like? While most climate scientists and researchers agree that hurricane severity, at least in terms of rainfall, will likely increase as the planet warms and becomes moister due to climate change and mankind’s significant impact on the weather, there remains uncertainty about the future of the frequency of hurricanes. Today’s climate models offer a range of possible futures, some predicting an increase in North Atlantic hurricane frequency, others a decrease. These conflicting results beg the question: are these models even capable of predicting hurricane frequency or are they missing some vital process? Only time will tell how accurate these progressive models are over time. It begs the question, if models do not reproduce the long-term history of hurricanes, should we trust their long-term predictions?

The frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes depends on the pattern of sea surface temperatures, particularly the warmth of the subtropical North Atlantic, an area that roughly extends from the tip of Florida to Cape Verde, relative to the tropical oceans as a whole, or what we commonly call the hurricane formation zone. When the subtropical North Atlantic is relatively warm, it leads to more atmospheric convection and more North Atlantic hurricanes. When the subtropical North Atlantic is relatively cool, hurricane formation rates decrease, in part because of winds that shear apart hurricanes. When today’s climate models try to reproduce past hurricane seasons, they generally predict too few between 1885-1900 and too many between 1930-1960. These models, however, all rely upon historic sea surface temperatures that indicate a relative cool subtropical Atlantic at the turn of the 20th century and a warm North Atlantic in the mid-20th century.